HSE Researchers Assess Creative Industry Losses from Use of GenAI
Speaking at the IPQuorum.Music forum on October 15, Leonid Gokhberg, HSE First Vice Rector, and Daniil Kudrin, an expert at the Centre for Industry and Corporate Projects of HSE ISSEK, presented the findings of the first study in Russia on the economic impact of GenAI on creative professions. The analysis shows that creators’ potential losses could reach one trillion roubles by 2030.
The pace of technological innovation is accelerating every year: while it took the telephone 75 years to 'take over the world,' DeepSeek reached 100 million users in just two weeks. Today, GenAI models are rapidly gaining popularity, enabling users to generate text, video, images, and audio. There are now at least 1,000 AI models on the market designed for creative tasks and capable of competing with human creators.
Experts at HSE ISSEK have developed a unique methodology for quantifying the losses faced by authors and copyright holders as a result of the adoption of AI. The study focuses on 12 creative professions that are most vulnerable to GenAI. For the first time, researchers have estimated the share of generative content in different types of creative work and assessed the income decline experienced by 'traditional' creators who do not use neural networks. Notably, the study deliberately excludes the potential positive effects of AI, such as increased productivity and reduced barriers to entry.
The findings indicate that total income losses for members of creative professions could reach 1 trillion roubles by 2030. Programmers and developers, as well as advertising and marketing specialists, are expected to be hit the hardest. Generative models have brought new players into the creative industries, including both institutional actors—such as IT companies, developers, and digital platforms—and individuals, such as amateur creators. The production and distribution of AI-generated content by these new players pose a serious threat to the revenues of writers, translators, journalists, and composers: according to experts, AI penetration in these professions will exceed 25%.
'We live in an era of exponential digital development,' says Leonid Gokhberg, First Vice Rector of HSE University. 'Innovation cannot be stopped, but it is crucial to foster a balanced dialogue between creators, technology companies, and the government. GenAI should not become a threat to creative professions. Rather, it should be viewed as a tool that complements human imagination, not replaces it.'
The researchers emphasise that current AI solutions are still far from fully replacing humans, as generative models are prone to 'hallucinations' and errors, and can pose reputational risks. In practice, AI often serves as an assistant, helping creators with editing, reference selection, translation, and technical problem-solving.
The HSE ISSEK study represents the first step toward a systematic analysis of GenAI’s impact on the intellectual property market and toward developing solutions that balance innovation with the protection of creators’ interests.
A full recording of the plenary session 'Authors in the Service of AI' is available here.
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